source: anuga_work/production/onslow_2006/report/tsunami_scenario.tex @ 4147

Last change on this file since 4147 was 4147, checked in by sexton, 17 years ago

(1) updates to Dampier script based on Perth script (2) minor updates to Onslow report

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1% for original scenario
2%The tsunamigenic event used in this report was developed for a
3%preliminary tsunami hazard assessment study delivered by GA
4%to FESA in September 2005
5%\cite{BC:FESA}. In the assessment, a suite of Mw 9 earthquakes
6%were evenly spaced along the Sunda Arc subduction zone and there
7%was no consideration of the likelihood of each event.
8%Other less likely sources were not considered, such
9%as intra-plate earthquakes near the WA coast, volcanoes, landslides
10%or asteroids.
11%In the preliminary assessment,
12%the maximum magnitude of earthquakes off Java was considered to be
13%at least 8.5 and could potentially be as high as 9.
15%FESA is interested in the ``most frequent worst case scenario''. Whilst
16%we currently cannot determine exactly what that event may be, the Mw 9 event
17%provides a plausible worst case scenario. To understand the
18%frequency of these tsunami-genic events,
19%GA is building probabilistic
20%models to develop a more complete tsunami hazard assessment
21%for the Sunda Arc subduction zone,
22%due for completion in late 2006. In the preliminary assessment for
23%example, it was suggested that while Mw 7 and 8 earthquakes are expected
24%to occur with a greater frequency than Mw 9 events,
25%they are likely to pose a comparatively low and more localised hazard to WA.
27%Figure \ref{fig:mw9} shows the maximum wave height of a tsunami initiated
28%by a Mw 9 event off
29%the coast of Java. This event provides the source and
30%boundary condition to the
31%inundation model presented in Section \ref{sec:anuga}.
36%  \centerline{ \includegraphics[width=140mm, height=100mm]
39%  \caption{Maximum wave height (in cms) for a Mw 9 event off the
40%coast of Java}
41%  \label{fig:mw9}
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