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\title{AnuGA Inundation Modelling Project - Planning and Priorities - Draft}
\author{Ole Nielsen, Duncan Gray, Jane Sexton, Nick Bartzis,\\ Trevor Dhu, Neil Corby, Stephen Roberts, ...}


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\begin{document}
\maketitle

\section*{Overview}

The ANUGA inundation modelling project is a collaborative effort between
 Geoscience Australia (GA) and the Australian National University
 (ANU). GA is largely responsible for the software development,
 applications to scenario and risk modelling projects as well as
 contributions to the Australian National Research Priorities.  
 ANU is mainly responsible for the mathematical and numerical modelling approach and the continued development of the model. 
 
 
 This
 document outlines the agreed priorities for the inundation modelling
 project predominantly seen from the GA perspective, but including the ANU where appropriate. 
 Priorities are organised into three separate streams focusing at the following objectives: 
 \begin{enumerate}  
   \item Deliverables of specific case studies. These are typically
   tasks that are requested by GA's clients.
   \item Research topics that have emerged and would advance the
   understanding of the science of hydrodynamic inundation
   \item Development and maintenance issues that are necessary for the
   continued health of the software itself.
\end{enumerate} 
where the first is primarily resourced by Jane Sexton and Nick Bartzis, the second by Stephen Roberts and Ole Nielsen, while the third is the responsibility of Ole Nielsen and Duncan Gray. Significant overlaps are expected and names assigned to tasks are tentative only. 

Overarching these three streams is a fourth stream, management, which covers coordination of the FESA project and management of the inundation modelling team.

\section*{Specific case studies (production)}



The list in order of importance but subject to availability of
topographic data and URS/MOST input is

\begin{enumerate} 
  \item Onslow, WA - end of June 06. This study mainly supports the
    FESA funded WA study, but has synergies with projects in other
    lists as well (Nick)
  \item Complete Sydney (Benfield) project (Jane). Refinements have
    included addressing water loss through the form of the surface
    elevation function, boundary conditions, friction creep and issues
    with ill-conditioned system as a result of a complex internal
    polygon. Whilst a protection has been put in place for friction
    creep, the issue is still outstanding. Final results will be
    delivered to Benfield by Fri 28 April noting the friction issue
    is still outstanding.  This project has synergies with the ANUGA
    Demo initiative (Everyone)
  \item Port Hedland - end of June 06. Also part of the WA project. (Nick)
  \item Rerun Wollongong with slump (pending better defition of slump sizes) (Nick, Adrian), 2-3 weeks
  \item NSW state study  (deferred until 2007 - Matt)
  \item SE Qld study
  \item Hobart 
  \item Other study areas may be identified when the national hazard map has been completed (expected
within the next 12 months) and consultation has occurred with stakeholders.
\end{enumerate}
Given that the production line is in a start-up phase and the needs
outlined in the research and development streams, only priority 1 to 3
are guaranteed to complete before 30 June 2006. However, once
streamlined, we expect a production rate of about one scenario per
month (subject to availability of computational resources and data).
A number of these studies may not be conducted by the team, however,
our assistance will certainly be required.



\section*{Research topics}

The list is

\begin{enumerate} 
  \item Sensitivity study using Onslow project (Nick, Jane, Ole)
  The sensitivity to mesh resolution to be investigated. There are two aspects:
  \begin{enumerate}
    \item Resolution of triangles containing individual gauges. ANUGA
    keeps track of the volume of water under each triangle. Pointwise
    measurements away from triangle centroids may deviate
    significantly from the true values due to the linear
    reconstruction of triangle near steep bedslopes. One study would
    provide an error estimate of the pointwise readings as a function
    of resolution and slope.
    \item How does resolution affect propagation of tsunami waves. One
    could fix the resolution near gauges at selected points near and
    on shore and vary resolution of bathymetry affecting the
    approaching waves. Results reported as deviation at gauges as
    function of bathymetric resolution upstream.
  \end{enumerate}     
  \begin{itemize}
    \item Nick to do the runs  
    \item Team to help setup the study and write document
  \end{itemize}   
  
  \item Validation: 
  \begin{itemize}
    \item Onslow tide gauges (Ole with David Burbidge)
      \begin{itemize}
      \item Ole to get data and terms of reference
      \item Nick to do the runs  
      \item Team to help setup the study and write document    
    \end{itemize} 
    \item Boxing day event (ANU contract 2006/2007 with Asavanant and Grilli)
    \item Friction validation (Duncan with Tom Baldock UQ)
    Duncan to get a sense of scope on this by June 2006. 
    Work to be done in 2006/2007.
    \item PDC (Ole)
    Ole to visit Pacifit Disaster Center in 6/7
    \item 1953 Suva data from Tariq (someone)
    Date is available. Ole to arrange for unpacking with GIS and scope project.
    Could form a graduate project.
  \end{itemize} 
  \item Comparison of MOST and ANUGA over a stretch of deep water. Also, where to pick up boundary condition (Nick).
  \item Momentum sink study (Duncan with Nick Dando)
  Report and talk by end of June 2006. Paper later.
  \item Submarine landslide modelling paper with Dr Mueller or Russell Blong (Ask him), Sydney (Jane, Ole, Adrian/Monica, Matt). 
        Perhaps use Wollongong as the study area.  
  \item Probabilistic integration with URS model, pending URS data (Ole, Trevor). Duncan to write urs2sww for boundary conditions. Ole to ask PDC.  
  \item Effect of the GBR based on new LADS data (which we need to get from Phil O'brien). 
        This could become a graduate program, an ANU contract or a job for an ANU summer scholar.
  \item Comparing calculated run-up height with Synolakis' approximation 
        ($R = A^\frac{4}{5} h^ \frac{1}{5}$ where $A$ is the amplitude at some offshore location
         and $h$ is the depth at the same offshore location). Calculate the maximum elevation 
         at which there is water. Need to confirm definition of run-up height.
  \item Incorporate asteroid model (parabolic cavity) as an initial condition into ANUGA. 
        Compare calculated extent with the approximation of
        run-in (or maximum extent) from Chesley and Ward 2006 where the run-in distance is approximated
        by $X \approx 10 \sqrt{g R} D^\frac{3}{8}$ where $R$ is the run-up height and $D$ is the 
        asteroid diameter. Allows another event to be added to the overall
        tsunami risk assessment. This could become a graduate or student project.
  \item Scenario database (future); this could complement the ATWS
    operational centre. (how often would it need to be updated, i.e how
    long will the results remain valid?  eg, effect of sediment transport
    affecting local bathymetry, change in sea levels due to climate
    change). This is a product for the ATWS, states and EMA. AGO may need
    scenarios under climate change scenarios.
  \item Automatic definition of mesh-resolution based on data (e.g. depth or gradients). Perhaps use wavelet transforms. Stephen has a link to a researcher at Imperial College, London.
  \item Investigate behaviour near steep and shallow bathymetries, where artifitial fluxes may be generated. Now evolved into 'friction creep'. 
    Stephen to look into that with input from Ole.
  \item Effect of debris on flow and damage (Under way at JCU - shawn)
  \item Write ANUGA in term of latitudes and longitudes
  \item Incorporate coriolis effect for large study areas
  \item Revive storm surge model (Rosh DNR)
  \item Riverine flooding (Rosh DNR)
  \item Collaboration with Hans Peter ?? (Stephen Roberts)
  \item Solution uncertainty (interaction with Hugh Durrant-Whyte and
  Suresh Kumar from USyd)
\end{enumerate}
No more than priority 1-4 are expected to complete before 30 June 2006.


\section*{Development and maintenance issues.}

The list is

\begin{enumerate} 
  \item Bug fixing (see tickets in TRAC) - ongoing (Duncan \& Ole)
  \item Integrated damage modelling (Duncan)
  \item Streamlined end-to-end process including production management of files (Nick + Hamish, Neil, Ole, Jane, Duncan)
  In addition to Nick's automatic log of scripts generating the data, also log username and ANUGA version if possible.
  \item The Black Screen of Death - ill-conditioned system, non-convergence of conjugate gradient solver (Jane). Has now become an issue of dealing with duplicate vertices, see ticket:43
  
  \item Map2PDF vs ArcReader (Neil, Lisa)
  \item Easy interface to building regions of variable resolution (Duncan)
  \item Sydney demo (Jane, Duncan, Ole) - Ask 
  \item Deploy parallel version (Ole, Nick)
  \item Userguide, technical documentation and installation process (Everyone)
  \item OSS License (Ole)
  \item Visualisation (Nick, Ole)
  \begin{itemize}
    \item Hand crafted using Houdini
    \item Take Swollen-viewer further, e.g.\ by colour coding quantitios or applying contour plots
    \item ANU work on new visualisation techniques
  \end{itemize}
  \item Automatic coastline buffering. 
  
\end{enumerate}
It is the hope that most of these priorities will be adressed before 30 June 2006.


\section*{Roles and responsibilities}


This is a first cut only. Please comment!


\subsection*{Inundation modelling team (IMP)}
\begin{enumerate} 
  \item \textbf{Duncan}: Take responsibility for the code development and maintenance.
  Represent the inundation modelling project in the corporate IM context. Other responsibilities include
  \begin{itemize}
  \item IM
  \item TRIM
  \item budget
  \end{itemize}
  Take responsibility for one or more research projects, and contribute to production on a needs basis.  
  \item \textbf{Jane}: Coordinate FESA production project, take responsibility for one or 
  more research projects and contribute to production and code development on a needs basis. In the longer term, maintenance of other stakeholder relationships (?).
  \item \textbf{Nick}: Take responsibility for the production stream, develop visualisation techniques, 
  and contribute to code development on a needs basis. Other responsibilities include
  \begin{itemize}
  \item TRIM
  \end{itemize}
  \item \textbf{Ole}: Coordinate the inundation modelling project. 
  Manage the balance and requirements between the research, development and production stream. 
  Take responsibility for the code development and maintenance as well as one or more research projects. 
  Contribute to production on a needs basis. Other responsibilities include
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Programmers User Group and High Performance Computing issues.
  \end{itemize} 
\end{enumerate}


\subsection*{Digital Elevation Modelling Team (DEM)}
\begin{enumerate} 
  \item \textbf{Hamish Anderson}: Coordinate collection and supply of 
  topographic and bathymetric data.    
  \item \textbf{Kathryn Tobyn}: Bathymetric data specialist.      
\end{enumerate}   

\subsection*{Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards (ETH)}
\begin{enumerate} 
  \item \textbf{David Burbidge}: Link to URS data; developing probabilistic hazard map
  \item \textbf{Phil Cummins}: Team leader
\end{enumerate}   

\subsection*{GIS team}
\begin{enumerate} 
  \item \textbf{Neil Corby}: Coordinate development of GIS decision tool. 
    Assist with collection and supply of topographic data.  
  \item \textbf{Ingo Hartig}: Development of GIS decision tool. 
    Assist with collection, supply and validation of topographic data.    
    Assist IMP with genaral GIS visualisation.  
  \item \textbf{Lisa Cornish}: Arcview exposure database with Neil
\end{enumerate}   


\begin{figure}

  \centerline{ \includegraphics[width=75mm, height=75mm]{information_flow.eps}}


\caption{Diagram showing information flow among the teams comprising the FESA project.}
\label{fig:information flow}
\end{figure}


\subsection*{Other stakeholders}
\begin{enumerate} 
  \item \textbf{Stephen Roberts (ANU)}: Contribute to research and further development of 
  ANUGA.   
  \item \textbf{Linda Stals (ANU)}: Develop parallel version of ANUGA.     
  \item \textbf{Adrian Hitchman and Monica Osuchowski}: Provide input to submarine landslide research.
  \item \textbf{Trevor Dhu}: Develop new engagements with external
  stakeholders such as state governments. Assist with development of probabilistic modelling.
  \item Others?
\end{enumerate}


    
\subsection*{Potential contacts}

\begin{itemize} 
  \item Lex Nielsen from SMEC in order to explore
    how they can get involved
  \item Lutz Grosz from ACcESS
  \item Tom Baldock UQ
  \item Tariq Rahiman (tir14@student.canterbury.ac.nz, tariq@mrd.gov.fj) (Suva scenario)
  \item Allen L. Clark PDC (aclark@pdc.org)
  \item Roy Walters, NIWA (tsunami modelling)
  \item Russell Blong, Benfield (landslide modelling)
  \item Ray Steedman, WA oceanography (By way of Norm Schramm)
  \item Rosh Ranasinghe (DPNR)
  \item Suresh Kumar (ACFR)
\end{itemize}     

    
\subsection*{Resources}    
    
The allocation to the different streams from the core inundation modelling team in terms of 
4 full time equivalents (FTE) are

\begin{itemize} 
\item \textbf{Production}: 1.25 FTE  (Mainly Nick)
\item \textbf{Research}: 1 FTE
\item \textbf{Code development and maintenance}: 1 FTE
\item \textbf{Management}: 0.75 FTE (0.5 WA-FESA Project coordination, 0.25 TEAM)
\end{itemize}


\chapter{Personnel availability}

\begin{itemize}
  \item \textbf{Duncan}: 4 days/week
  \item \textbf{Jane}: Three weeks leave in the period 15 June 2006 to 15 July 2006
    Ole to cover Jane's commitments.
  \item \textbf{Nick}: Leave from 22 August 2006 to 13 October 2006
    Duncan to cover off on the production line.
  \item \textbf{Ole}: Leave for six weeks around August or September. 
    Jane to be acting team leader with Duncan responsible for
    software and maintenance issues. 
\end{itemize}



\chapter{Detailed planning}

Needs updating

\section{Validation of ANUGA}

\subsection{Laboratory Data}
25 July 2005: Benchmark data from wave tank experiments 
were deemed suitable for
initial validation exercises and we should proceed with these
immediately using the existing acquired datasets.  In addition, data
from vertical wall run-ups will be relevant.  Andrew's letter to key
players regarding other existing laboratory datasets is deemed
extremely valuable and should go ahead.
This has now completed in the form of the Okushiri island validation

7 April 2006: Next exercise along these lines seems to be wavetank
data from UQ as conducted by Tom Baldock et al. These experiments
include friction. Duncan will visit Tom in May and possibly conduct a
validation project depending on his findings.



\subsection{Historical Data}
Andrew McPherson has contacted relevant organisations regarding sources and
availability of existing post-tsunami field survey data.  We agreed
that a scenario from e.g. Banda Aceh or Thailand (Phuket)
demonstrating the detailed effect of bathymetric variations would be
an ideal study and could form the basis of a scientific paper. Matt is
considering whether this would fit into his research priorities.

Promising leads are
\begin{itemize}
  \item Suva data (Tariq)
  \item Boxing day event conducted by the Grilli and Asavanant (Stephen Roberts). This has been flagged as a \$15K ANU project in FY 6/7
  \item The Connection to Sri Lanka (John Schneider)
\end{itemize}

  
\subsection{Other}
Validation against analytical solutions is well under way and 
is considered an integral component of the validation process.
The same is true for the Lake Merimbula tidal validation project.
Stephen, John Jakeman and Chris are looking after these.


    

\section{Potential joint PhD projects (GA and ANU)}
Ole to investigate if GA would fund a PhD student: Project could be
"Algorithms for augmentation of unstructured grids" or "Algorithms for
unification of geodesic systems in unstructured grids" the latter
capturing the notion of being able to model the synoptic, deep water
wave propagation in latitudes and longitudes with a seemless connection 
to detailed modelling using UTM projections.
A PhD scholarship is worth about \$20K per annum. 

7 April 2006: We are putting \$10K in the 06-07 budget.

\section{Other projects}
LADS (laser airborne depth sounder) data is available from the Hydrographer's Officer
for the Great Barrier Reef. A project investigating whether or not a tsunami wave
is attentuated by the reef would be a real benefit to the ATWS (to inform whether
North Queensland is vulnerable).

\section{Long term aim}

We agreed that having a detailed, reproducible and validated 
inundation scenario from the Boxing Day Tsunami running in parallel
(and being faster than the sequential code) would be a worthwhile goal.   
    
    
\end{document}