1 | The tsunamigenic event used for this study is one used |
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2 | to develop the preliminary tsunami hazard assessment which |
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3 | was delivered to FESA in September 2005 (ref Burbidge, D. and |
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4 | Cummins, P. 2005). In that assessment, a suite of |
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5 | tsunami were evenly spaced along the Sunda Arc subduction zone and there |
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6 | was no consideration of likelihood. Other sources were not considered, such |
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7 | as intra-plate earthquakes near the WA coast, volcanoes, landslides |
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8 | or asteroids. The preliminary assessment argued |
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9 | that the maximum magnitude of earthquakes off Java is at least 8.5 and |
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10 | could potentially be as high as 9. |
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11 | |
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12 | Current studies underway in GA are building probabilistic |
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13 | models to develop a more complete tsunami hazard assessment |
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14 | for the Sunda Arc subduction zone. (This is |
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15 | due for completion in late 2006.) In the preliminary assessment for |
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16 | example, it was argued that while Mw 7 and 8 earthquakes are expected |
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17 | to occur with a greater frequency, they are likely to pose a comparatively |
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18 | low and localised hazard to WA. |
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19 | |
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20 | FESA are interested in the ``most frequent worst case scenario''. Whilst |
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21 | we cannot determine what that event may be, the Mw 9 event provides |
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22 | a plausible worst case scenario. |
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23 | |
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24 | The following figure is taken from the preliminary assessment and |
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25 | shows the maximum wave height up to the 50m contour for a Mw 9 event off |
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26 | the coast of Java. It is this event which provides the source to the |
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27 | inundation modelling presented in the following section. |
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28 | |
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29 | |
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30 | |
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31 | \begin{figure}[hbt] |
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32 | |
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33 | \centerline{ \includegraphics[width=100mm, height=75mm]{../report_figures/mw9.jpg}} |
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34 | |
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35 | \caption{Maximum wave height (in cms) for a Mw 9 event off the |
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36 | coast of Java} |
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37 | \label{fig:mw9} |
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38 | \end{figure} |
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